
The day after Christmas Day used to be a big rush to the stores at the crack of dawn to get to those after holiday marked down merchandise. With me it's mostly ornaments and Christmas cards. This is a thing of the past. I have no desire to shop anymore and I haven't had for the longest time.
This year, the day after was a trip to the bookstore, one thing I always enjoy. Grabbing a chair, I'm lucky if I get one, and picking up a book to read is one of my best pastimes. Sometimes with a cup of Starbuck's frap on the side. It would be a treat if I could just take those books home and find enough time to read most of them. I hardly buy books for my collection anymore. I just borrow from the public library instead since I no longer have room in my home library.
Three boxes of Christmas cards were all I had in my basket as I roamed the aisles at Barnes and Nobles up and down. Then I spotted one book I've always wanted to read but which is still not available in the local library. The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I started reading the prologue while in the bookstore and I just couldn't put it down.
I was first fascinated by the whole concept of probabilities, outliers and uncertainty when I watched the interview given by
Taleb and Mandelbrot on PBS recently. Standard deviations, the Gaussian distribution, bias and precision were lessons I've learned but only meaningful to me in terms of my profession and not as they apply to real-life problems. Taleb does exactly just what some of us would like to see - the application of this science of uncertainty to our daily world situations. He disproves the premise that some of us live by, that
what we do not know can not really hurt us. Imagine the unexpected. It takes only one sighting to invalidate the belief that all swans are white. One outlier can make an impact and then he takes us through all the disciplines and occurrences in daily life to prove this.
The parallels and evidences he offered are just amazing but clearly defined. From the 9/11 event, to the logic and mathematics of everything including gambling casinos, the fate of a less known opera singer Giaccomo, our choice of our profession or the meaning of scalability. He discusses the element of serendipity in inventions and discoveries.
It is a book written not just for economists or those who have a mindset the same as the author. It is thought-provoking and simply challenging. The arguments he makes are clear and makes sense to me. It's one book that I can't see reading in two, three or even ten sittings.
Taleb is a well-rounded scholar, not just an economist but a literary genius of the highest rank. I really enjoy reading this book, it's a challenge for the stagnant mind and exercise for the hungry brain. That suits me fine.
This is a gem of a book.